Online supplementary file 2: Sensitivity analysis of ACHD DisMod-PDE parameters

To test the sensitivity of our model predictions, we consider holdout scenarios where we limit the model to include only data from before a certain year. By comparing our estimates of ACHD cases based on all available data to estimates with progressively less data, we can obtain some indication of how additional data may change our projection going forward. We consider holding out scenarios that include only data before the following years: 2009, 2007, 2005, and 2000. This changes estimated number of ACHD cases by -8% to 10%, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing year-specific estimates of the ACHD population size. Tables 1-4 show the comparisons.